Q&A - Ivory Coast election crisis

28 December 2010 Africa heads of state are trying to mediate an end to the crisis in Ivory Coast following the impasse over November's presidential election result. Incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo is refusing to hand over power to his rival Alassane Ouattara, who has been recognised internationally as the victor. What is the background to all this? A decade ago, Ivory Coast was seen as a haven of peace and prosperity in West Africa. But under the surface, the country has long been deeply divided along ethnic, religious and economic lines. Its thriving cocoa industry meant living standards in Ivory Coast were far higher than its neighbours, so people from some of the world's poorest countries, such as Mali and Burkina Faso, moved there to earn their living. Some of these people shared ethnic ties to those living in northern Ivory Coast and, like them, were mostly Muslim. Some southerners, egged on by populist politicians, started to resent the influx and demanded action to protect the country's "Ivoirite (Ivorian-ness)". They portrayed northerners as not being real Ivorians. So why is the country divided in two? The northerners then started to complain that they were being discriminated against. For example, Mr Ouattara, a Muslim, was banned from standing for president in previous elections because it was said his parents came from Burkina Faso. He had already served as the country's prime minister. Similarly, many northerners said they were being refused national identity cards and the right to vote. In 2002, some northern soldiers mutinied and marched on Abidjan. They were on the verge of seizing the whole country when they were stopped by French troops. The country has been divided into north and south ever since. So was the vote in the north free and fair? That is the key question. Under a peace deal which led to this election, a new voters' roll was drawn up and many northerners registered. They largely voted for Mr Ouattara. But Mr Gbagbo's supporters say the New Forces rebels helped rig the vote in favour of Mr Ouattara in the areas they still control. The Constitutional Council, headed by a Gbagbo ally, agreed and annulled the votes from the north, leaving Mr Gbagbo with a slender overall majority. The UN observer mission says that there was violence in parts of the north, as well as in Mr Gbagbo's home region in the west, but that overall, the vote was democratic and peaceful. Many international organisations, including the UN, African Union and EU, have now recognised Mr Ouattara as the winner. So what happens next? The West African regional body Ecowas is trying to mediate a solution. They have threatened to send an intervention force to country if Mr Gbagbo refuses to stand aside. There are already about 10,000 UN peacekeepers in the country, while former colonial power France still has a military base there. France has already said it might intervene to protect its considerable economic interests in the country, and has urged its 15,000 nationals in Ivory Coast to leave, as a "precaution". In previous bouts of unrest, they have been targeted by Mr Gbagbo's supporters, who accused France of favouring the rebels. Is civil war inevitable? Not necessarily. Even during the civil war, there were never large-scale hostilities, rather the odd skirmish and riots in cities such as Abidjan, the commercial capital and a stronghold of Mr Gbagbo, which saw attacks on foreigners, Muslims and northerners. But the UN has said violence so far has killed 173 people and its investigators have also found evidence of extrajudicial executions, torture and arrests. Liberian mercenaries are also helping Mr Gbagbo's troops - and he has ordered the UN and French troops to leave. Some 15,000 people have already fled to Liberia - some saying they had been threatened for having voted for Mr Gbagbo. Mr Gbagbo's camp has warned that an interventionist force could spark violence - and many of his supporters in the south, whose only access to news has been via the state-run TV and radio, feel international players are intervening unfairly. Some analysts say sanctions are the best option to put pressure on Mr Gbagbo. The West African bank has already blocked his access to Ivory Coast's funds - which may make it difficult for pay the salaries of soldiers and civil servants next month. Meanwhile, Mr Gbagbo has rejected any suggestion of a power-sharing deal, as has happened in several African countries after election disputes. The outgoing government was a coalition of Mr Gbagbo's supporters and the former rebels. But Kenya's Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who is part of a power-sharing government, has been appointed at the African Union's mediator - perhaps this will become an option in time. Apart from renewed military confrontation, we could also see more ethnic riots in cities such as Abidjan. Source: BBC News (bbc.co.uk/news)